It seems that a decades-long disagreement among international analysts on alleged decline of the United States as a world power is finally over. In the late 1980s, Paul Kennedy in his book "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers" was considering that the US leadership in the world economy would be seriously challenged by industrious Japan. After all, such new concepts like just-in-time manufacturing and Theory Z, which are included in all MBA programs worldwide, have come to us from the Japanese Mega Corporations.
Today US's main geo-economic challenge is China. If in the next ten years its rate of growth is higher than 6% per year, it will overtake the US's nominal GDP measured in dollars by 2025, according to forecasts. Observed in recent years proportional reduction of the US share of the global gross domestic product, seemed to be the proof of its decline. If by the end of the Second World War half of the global GDP fell to the US share, today, even with the domestic product equal to 18 billion dollars, the country's share in the world production is less than 25%.
After September 11, America's vulnerability and failure to combat terrorism — be it operations in Afghanistan or Iraq – is inextricably linked to US's geopolitical disaster. Indecision in the face of non-state threats (Al-Qaeda, ISIL) and inconsistency of actions in an effort to liberalize global trade within the multilateral platforms such as the WTO, the United States really played into the hands of those who tend to see the country regress.
However, this tendency has changed. Looks like the United States is regaining its position of influence on the geopolitical arena. However, such changes within the United States are accompanied by numerous voices calling for a new "isolationism" and the rejection of America's indispensable leadership in decision-making on any of the international priority issues. It's obvious that the US has moved to the front of the political scene back again. Washington is establishing friendly relations with India in Asia. US companies are main participants of “Make in India” program, headed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
In Europe, the US is an acting power pushing Brussels to take a tougher line towards the eastern part of the Old Continent. Washington together with the EU continue their tough stance and severe sanctions against Russia introduced last year as a result of the annexation of Crimea. On top of that, the US is preparing new initiatives for Africa and Latin America, understanding that in the last 15 years it has missed many opportunities because of the influence of China.
The most impressive thing about new American boom is its "newly emerging market" status. North American stock market has already recovered (and even exceeded) to its pre-crisis levels of 2008 of subprime loans. America's sharp cutback of operating expenses compared to other countries was caused by its workforce productivity, efficiency of capital allocation, skillful use of technology and wider access to international markets.
US economy slowed to a tepid 1.5 pct. rate in July-Sept. quarter as businesses cut stockpiles: https://t.co/jiYT8lvLkh— The Associated Press (@AP) October 29, 2015
According to a new report of the Shanghai Institute of Finance and Law (SIFL), the difference in manufacturing cost between the US and China does not reach 5% today. In this connection, an increasing number of Chinese training centers acknowledge in dismay, that the United States is turning into a new "world factory" again. And of course, the US is leading a new world line-up of the multilateral trade agreements and investments. As an example — the Trans-Pacific Partnership and a free trade zone agreement being negotiated between the United States and the European Union.
American leadership in the energy industry (due to shale oil and shale gas extraction) and the ability to revolutionize the sector by means of technology, such as 3D-printing, help the country emerge rapidly as a new epicenter of international relations. These newly acquired leading positions on the world stage for the next 30 years require a complete revision of the strategy by those countries with focus on the decline of the US. Unfortunately, Brazil has found itself among the bad strategists.