On the eve of the latest series of Vienna-2 Syrian crisis talks, the UN Special Representative for Syria announced that only the Syrian people themselves may decide what role Bashar al-Assad should play.  The views of Staffan de Mistura echo those of Moscow and Tehran — who have said that President Assad should have the opportunity to participate in forthcoming elections, and that this is a matter in which only the views of the people of Syria should hold sway.

 

The UN Special Representative for Syria held meetings in Moscow with representatives of the Russian government to prepare for the impending round of Vienna-2 talks. After a joint meeting with Russian FM Sergey Lavrov, the two diplomats gave a press conference. Lavrov opened the proceedings by saying “The talks process between the Syrian government and the opposition has to be speeded up.” Carrying on to summarize his meeting with de Mistura, Lavrov said “We have compiled a list of terrorist organizations who must be excluded from contention, by comparison with moderate opposition factions.” The Russian leadership stresses that the Syrian opposition must adopt a unified stance, and cooperate with the country's government in the process of putting down terror factions such as al-Qaeda and ISIL. It seems clear that Russia has decided to pursue a path of mediation between the Syrian government and the opposition, and is now taking steps to invite chosen figures from the Syrian opposition to Moscow – both those located within Syria, and others based overseas. In its dealings with the Syrian opposition, Moscow announced that on November 3 its fighter squadrons had carried out sorties against terrorist cells in many locations throughout Syria — thanks to closely-coordinated work with Syrian national opposition groups.

 

Sergei Lavrov continued his speech by referring to the nine-point plan adopted on October 30 by foreign ministers of seventeen countries, convening in Vienna. “Moscow upholds the Vienna Declaration in order to solve the Syrian crisis.” Ever since the moment Russia officially entered the war in Syria, in parallel with its military operations it has redoubled its diplomatic overtures in encouraging Syrian groups to adopt a unified political approach to the solution of the crisis. The Russian President's Special Representative for West Asia,  Mikhail Bogdanov, announced that “next week we will be inviting them to Moscow, for consultation. There isn't any conflict on this matter with the Syrian government,” Bogdanov added, “and we are already maintaining contact with representatives of several different opposition groups, in order to bring them to meetings in Moscow.” The Russian government played a turnkey role in staging the Vienna talks on October 30 - the first such meetings to have been attended by Iranian representatives. 

 

During his joint press conference with Lavrov on November 3, de Mistura said “I'm very happy to see that Russia has maintained the increased pace towards a resolution of the Syrian crisis, which helped a great deal in Vienna. This upturn can only be called a positive development, and must be maintained. For the sake of the Syrian people as a whole, we have to reach a real result” the UN Special Representative went on. “Everything depends upon achieving a concrete political resolution within the framework of the Geneva and Vienna declarations. These documents make it very clear that the situation demands a comprehensive process — that must include the fight against terrorism, and holding elections.”

 

 

De Mistura's clear position

While Staffan de Mistura is engaged in organizing the next round of Vienna talks, the continuously pressing issue of the fate of President Assad still remains unresolved. Both Russia and Iran insist that he must have the right to stand in upcoming elections – and that only the Syrian people themselves should have the right to decide whether he remains in power or not. However, the opposition, and those who back them, insist that Assad should play no role whatsoever in Syria's future. During the meeting on 30 October the participants agreed that no consensus could be reached on this issue. De Mistura, when asked on 3 November if President Assad has a role to play in Syria's future, replied “What you're really asking is for us to make this decision on behalf of the people of Syria.

 

In Vienna, the conclusion that we came to is that our views are wholly incompatible. Only the people of Syria should decide who should be the nation's leader – and we need to proceed on the basis of that principle.” In this, UN envoy's stance concurs fully with the view Tehran and Moscow take of the situation. It's the first time a UN representative has given such an unambiguous statement about the future role of Bashar al-Assad. De Mistura replaced Lakhdar Bahimi as Special Representative for Syria in July 2014, and went on to give a draft outline for resolving the Syrian crisis which has remarkable similarities with the Russian proposals.  The project was based on a document from the Centre for Humanitarian Negotiations – a Swiss organization which arranges international mediation. De Mistura's  project doesn't suggest any specific proposals for political change, nor do they have any preconditions for Assad's future – it's primarily of a humanitarian nature. When he was still fresh in the job, de Mistura was buttonholed by a journalist from the Arabic newspaper Al-Hayat – who wanted to know de Mistura's future predictions for Syrian's current president. UN representative gave a succinct but clear reply — “I refrain from comment on that matter.”

 

Help from Moscow and Tehran

The viewpoint expressed by Staffan de Mistura on 3 November – about the future role of Bashar al-Assad – is worlds apart from his former fog-laden remarks. Overall the UN Special Representative supports the position held by Moscow and Tehran on this thorny issue in the negotiations. After de Mistura's statement, Russian FM Lavrov spoke again. “Please allow me to express my support for this stance. As was clearly stated in the Vienna Declaration, this decision is in the hands of the people of Syria. There is only one way of resolving this deadlock, and that is by putting it to the will of Syria's citizens.”

 

Analysts believe that the Syrian opposition – and its foreign backers – oppose Assad's candidacy for election because they understand the situation very well – if there is a free-will vote, then Assad stands good chances of winning. In the Kuwait-published newspaper Al-Ray, defense correspondent Elijah J Magnier puts it thus:“the USA and Saudi Arabia know fully well that if Assad's candidacy is found admissible, he is certain to win – and that's why they oppose him standing.” Whilst Lavrov and de Mistura are issuing statements on Syria's political future being decided by its citizens only, Iranian diplomats were saying almost exactly the same thing with their Syrian colleagues.

 

On November 3, Iranian FM Mohammad Javad Zarif was holding discussions with Syrian Deputy FM Faisal Miqdad, at which he once again stated Iran's position clearly. “We remain convinced that Syria's own people should decide the future and destiny of their country themselves. The maximum role others should play is to act as brokers in the political process, and aid in solving the Syrian crisis.”  Faisal Miqdad, placing a high value on the assistance proffered by the Islamic Republic of Iran, continued their meeting by saying “it is my duty to offer the warmest greetings to Iran's Spiritual Leader and President, on behalf of President Assad.” 

 

An important gain by the anti-terrorist forces in Aleppo

 

On November 3, the media announced that the Syrian government army — acting in consort with the Lebanese Hezbollah — had cleared 98% of the Isriya-Hanzer highway of ISIL terrorists, in the southern Syrian province of Aleppo. The Iranian new agency Fars wrote that Syrian army formations, aided by military detachments from the Lebanese Hezbollah mounted fresh attacks on the morning of 28 October, hitting ISIL-held territory on the Isriya-Hanzer highway and retaking the area. Syrian military units and Hezbollah began a military operation to sweep the strategically-vital area more than a week ago, and now have full control of over 98% of the highway.  In earlier fighting, because significant involvement of the Syrian army forces and Hezbollah on the eastern and south-western fronts of the Aleppo province had kept them occupied elsewhere, terror groups from ISIL, al-Nusra Front and Ahrar Ash-Sham had been able to capture the highway, and cause great difficulty for the population of Aleppo.